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New - looking for some basic advice / info

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  • New - looking for some basic advice / info

    Hey there,

    Wasn't collecting two weeks ago but for whatever reason got the bug and I'm now bidding up multiple auctions a day on Ebay. But I really have no idea what I'm doing, and I'm looking for some basic advice / info.

    I'm not looking to make money. At the same time, I'm not looking to burn money. My goal / plan is basically to buy (I think I'm using the right terms) autos / relics of players I like, just to have. I suppose my ceiling for an individual card is ~$500 (I'd only buy something graded at that price) and I'm not interested in commons - cheaper cards I'm interested in are the #/399 Topps Museum autographs.

    Question 1: Let's say I buy a "Jose Fernandez 2011 bowman chrome draft blue autograph 9.5/10 bgs" on ebay now for $600. Lets assume Fernandez continues his career trajectory.

    In 5 years time, what is the probability the card has lost 10% of its value? 20%? 50%? Does your answer change if its 10 years? 20 years?

    I'm not interested in thoughts necessarily about the specific card - or even just Jose Fernandez cards. My question is more whether cards tend to hold their value, or is it just star players, or is the baseball card market a money black hole?

    Ultimately, my fear is I'm investing hundreds / thousands in fun souvenirs that are going to significantly decrease in value over time.

    Question 2: are there specific sets or types of cards that tend to better hold their value? Related - I'm basically in love with the Topps Museum hits / relics / autos. Good / bad set in terms of likelihood of losing money?

    Question 3: what is the most "premium" set (i.e. most expensive pack / box)

    Thanks much!
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