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The Diminishing Value of a Scott Baker 1-of-1
It’s been a while since I’ve done a Minnesota Twins post and, after today’s news, today seemed like a good day to crank one out. Right-handed Starting Pitcher Scott Baker has signed a 1-year $5.5M deal with the Chicago Cubs.
It seems that laying down $100+ for the above 1-of-1 Baker oh so many years ago may have been a foolish collecting investment after all.
You see, when I excitedly bid on, won and paid for that high-end card, I did so with high-end expectations of Baker’s future production with the perpetually divisional dominant Twins. He had shown glimpses of incredible potential early in his career. In 2007, he took a perfect game to the 9th Inning and finished the game out with a 1-hit complete game victory. In 2008, Baker became the first Minnesota Twins player ever to strike out 4 batters in the same inning (striking out Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder on a Passed Ball, Russell Branyan and Mike Cameron). Scott was also named the Twins’ 2011 Pitcher of the Year while leading the team in WHIP, ERA and K’s. Things were looking very promising for both Baker and the Twins.
Then 2012 happened. After dealing with nagging elbow issues, his season was lost before it even started when he opted for Tommy John surgery–a procedure that is, at times, a death knell for pitchers. The Twins have seen this scenario play out right in front of them far too many times in recent memory. Just off the top of my head, two Twins pitchers who were known for their early-career dominance succumbed to TJ surgery and have seemingly never returned to full form. Those pitchers are Francisco Liriano and Pat Neshek. Liriano is now in the White Sox rotation and Pat Neshek has become a bit of a journeyman, bouncing around from team to team and from minors to majors. Bearing first-person witness to these instances, it’s no wonder that Twins GM, Terry Ryan, made the decision to decline their $9.25M option with Baker.
That’s not to say that Baker’s elbow was the only reason Ryan put the kibosh on Baker’s club option. The Twins have also spent the last two seasons sputtering, spinning and spiraling out of control and sinking to the bottom of the American Leauge. In 2010, the Twins were the first to secure their spot in the playoffs. Just one season later, they had the worst record in the American League–which they repeated in 2012. What happened between their magical 2010 season and 2011 to create such chaos for the ensuing two seasons–and potentially more?
One could argue that injuries to starting position players and pitchers sparked the downfall of the mighty Twins. One could also argue that the mass exodus of Twins free agents and poor trades by Bill Smith in 2010 and 2011 were the swings of the axe that whittled the Twins away. One could also argue that it was poor management from top-to-bottom that sealed the Twins’ fate. Of course, I believe it was a healthy dose of all of the above. Concussions to top players, constant injuries to pitching staff (perhaps due to poor training), loss of quality free agents, hugely underwhelming trades and a lack of effort to acquire quality free agents are all at fault here. Even as Twins ownership has shuffled around its front office staff (most notably bringing back GM Terry Ryan) and reassigning coaches and trainers, it looks as if they have yet to properly apply the tourniquet.
As Twins fans can likely attest, this off-season will likely be no different than any other. If things pan out this year as they have so many times before, the Twins will come away from the hot stove with little-to-no movements. The last productive trade that comes to mind is when Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett were traded for Delmon Young and… umm… see my point? Blame it on poor scouting, blame it on terrible gut instinct, blame it on bad gambles but, it seems that the Twins are often the recipients of the short end of the trading stick.
Speaking of which, anyone remember the Johan Santana trade? Remind me again the value that the Twins got in return for letting go of the only Ace they’ve had in decades?
The definite loss of Scott Baker only solidifies my personal outlook of the Twins’ 2013 campaign. At the very least, they already know what a full season without Baker will yield. In my view, not having to worry about how Baker will perform, let alone whether they can even re-sign him, will actually benefit the team. The Twins would have still needed to sort out and reconfigure their piecemeal starting rotation just the way they did without Baker in 2012. To me, though, a repeated action equals a repeated result–unless you’re crazy, of course.
So how can you repeat the 2012 actions without Baker and avoid coming up with the same results? The simplest answer is to NOT repeat those actions. Yes, the Twins’ rotation will still be made up of rookies, misfits and castaways, but now that Baker is out of the way, there is a chance at making some actual progress and actual improvement. Without Baker hanging over Ryan’s head, he can now seek out that veteran innings eater that will also serve to stabilize the nearly directionless starting staff. Ryan can focus on getting an honest-to-goodness #1 front-of-the-rotation guy. Ryan can finally strip off that moldy old bandage and begin to stitch up their wounds, even if that means getting rid of some big names.
As far as baseball is concerned, my mantra is and forever will be “good pitching will ALWAYS beat good hitting.” The Twins have proven that hitting is not their problem. In fact, they have plenty of it. Pitching, however, is an enormous problem for the Twins. I might not be the best at deductive reasoning, but it seems to me that the Twins have some hitters to spare which could be used to attract some decent pitching. MVP Justin Morneau, Silver Slugger Josh Willingham and First Round Draft Pick Denard Span all seem like excellent trade bait to me and, with the team’s wealth of hitting and massive lack of pitching, are, in my opinion, all expendable.
No matter how that all pans out, though, Scott Baker will still be pitching for the Chicago Cubs in 2013 and I’ll still be sitting here with this 1-of-1. It sits on my display case as one of the central pieces of my collection. After all, it is the only 1-of-1 I own. Although it is still a Twins card, the player featured is no longer on the team. That particular player did not achieve anything with the Twins worthy of Hall of Fame recognition. The card doesn’t even bare the old “ROOKIE CARD” bat and plate logo. Add the fact that there’s a chance that Scott may never perform effectively again, is this a card worth holding onto? If the card featured Harmon Killebrew, Rod Carew, Tony Oliva, Kirby Puckett, Bert Blyleven, Kent Hrbek, Joe Mauer, Johan Santana or Justin Morneau, then there would be no way I would even think twice about keeping it in my collection.
It used to be a point of pride for me. I used to proudly display it as my favorite piece in my personal collection. Now that Baker has moved on and did not meet the high expectations that I had set for him, not only has it been replaced by another card as my favorite, I’m wondering if I’ll even keep it.
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