Baseball Card Market = Efficient Market?

[shandsgator8]

Hello all,

I am relatively new to this hobby and have some questions. I am on a somewhat limited budget and trying to figure out how to get the most fun and hits for my dollar. For now, I am limiting the cards I buy to the Topps flagship line. I may splurge and get a box of Tribute or Tripple Threads, but for now, "regular" line only. In trying to make my decision, there are some things I do not understand and was wondering if you all could answer some of my questions.

1. Is the baseball card market “efficient?” What I mean by that, is a price for a given box (jumbo, hobby, or retail) an accurate reflection of the potential value of that box? For example, Blowout cards has Topps Baseball 2011 Series 1 Hobby box for $40 while the Jumbo box is $70. However, a Topps Baseball 2013 Series 2 Hobby box is only $27 while the Jumbo box is only $53. Not knowing any better, I’d get a 2013 Series 2 box over a 2011 Series 1 box. But I’m assuming there’s a reason for the price difference and I’d like to know and understand why.

For example, if I were to open a statistically significant number of boxes of the 2011 Series 1 and 2013 Series 2 boxes, effectively sell each year’s cards (at arm’s length and in a “normal” baseball card market), then I should end up with roughly the same profit/loss margin, whether I open 2011 Series 1 or 2013 Series 2 boxes, correct (assuming the market for unopened boxes of Topps baseball cards is an efficient one). If I’m correct, why are the 2013 Series 2 boxes so much cheaper than 2011? Is it because the 2011 Series 1 boxes have cards that are in high demand, such as a particular rookie card or some highly sought after relics? Or is it simply because there are fewer 2011 Series 1 boxes that are unopened? Any thoughts would be appreciated.

2. All things being equal, selling an SP or parallel card from the current Topps 2014 Series 1 release will go for a higher price than a similar SP or parallel card from a past year, such as 2012, right? Why is that? Is it because with a newer card, collectors have had less time to collect that card and therefore there’s still more demand for it?

3. If my goal is to get hits, which would be better, 2 hobby boxes or 1 jumbo box (assuming they are the same price) and why? Would your answer depend on what series and year boxes I planned on getting?

4. If my goal is to make money, which would be better, 2 hobby boxes or 1 jumbo box (assuming they are the same price) and why? Would your answer depend on what series and year boxes I planned on getting?

5. On a different subject, what exactly are “buyback” cards?

I understand answering all these questions would take some time and effort, but any insight or comments, to even to one of my questions would be helpful.

Thanks!

[texansrangerfan73]

I can maybe only answer the last 3 questions.

3) If your goal is to make money then you better saves your because you will need to buy cases instead of boxes.
4) If your main goal is to get hits then you should just buy single autos or GU'd (game-used) relic cards. Not to discourage you in anyway but most boxes will give you hits yes but actually most will be of low end meaning $8- 12 BV a piece.
5) Buyback cards are vintage cards that Topps has bought back & they randomly insert them in packs of different boxes that they offer. For example '14 Topps Series 1 has buybacks available in hobby boxes/jumbo boxes.

Hope this helps with a few of your questions.

[shandsgator8]

Thanks for your reply.

I understand that buying a case or buying individual cards may be "better" ways of obtaining my goals, but I really enjoy the excitement of buying boxes and opening packs (without spending $300+ to do it). Therefore, I will be buying boxes with plenty of packs inside. Given that, what is better with respect to hits and/or trying to make money, buying 2 hobby boxes or 1 jumbo box? I know I probably will not make back my money, but if I have a better CHANCE of making money with one option over the other, I'd like to know and understand why.

[texansrangerfan73]

It all depends on the hobby boxes. Like 2014 Topps Series 1 if you buy 2 boxes you will only (guaranteed 1 hit each) get 2 hits as far as an autograph or jersey/relic. If you buy 2 boxes of Gypsy Queen you will get 8 hits overall because each box comes with 2 autographs & 2 jersey/relics. In jumbo boxes of Topps & Bowman you get 3 hits, 1 auto & 2 jersey/relics in Topps & 3 autographs in Bowman. As far as making any money back I'm sure it can be done on hobby or jumbos if you make insert, team & player sets just not guaranteed to make profit if that's your main goal. Of course the above average autograph or game-used can bring good coinage such as Trout, Harper & Puig or any 1/1s & low numbered parallels.

[shandsgator8]

Thanks for your reply, but if I understand it correctly, hobby boxes will ONLY have 1 relic/auto and that's it? Is it possible for a hobby box (however unlikely) to have 2 hits or more? Again, I understand it's unlikely, but I want to know if Topps deliberately prevents a hobby box from having more than 1 hit. And the same question applies with jumbo boxes - will they have 3 and ONLY 3 hits per box?

[drubacca117]

Thanks for your reply, but if I understand it correctly, hobby boxes will ONLY have 1 relic/auto and that's it? Is it possible for a hobby box (however unlikely) to have 2 hits or more? Again, I understand it's unlikely, but I want to know if Topps deliberately prevents a hobby box from having more than 1 hit. And the same question applies with jumbo boxes - will they have 3 and ONLY 3 hits per box?

Nope, they have guaranteed hits, but you still have the pack odds of getting more hits! I bought a jumbo box of 2014 Topps that had an extra relic in it in it. My best hobby box is actually a football box that had 4 guaranteed hits, an extra auto hit, and a case hit (insert that had the odds of 2 per case), for a 6 total hit box!

You are right that it isn't super common, but you do have decent odds of getting extra hits!

[shandsgator8]

Thanks for the info, drubacca117!

[texansrangerfan73]

Each box has a certain number of guaranteed but there is always a chance at an extra hit if you are lucky. Also even though they aren't autographs or GU'd, the low numbered parallels are considered hits by some if not most collectors. Examples such as 1/1 printing plates or the Red refractors & Orange refractors found in Bowman Chrome. Plates are found in all sets.

[drubacca117]

Each box has a certain number of guaranteed but there is always a chance at an extra hit if you are lucky. Also even though they aren't autographs or GU'd, the low numbered parallels are considered hits by some if not most collectors. Examples such as 1/1 printing plates or the Red refractors & Orange refractors found in Bowman Chrome. Plates are found in all sets.

Very true! In a box of 2013 Topps Chrome Football I bought, my guaranteed "hit" was an undrafted rookie auto of a player that has been on 8 teams (on the practice squad) in one year. In that same box I got a red parallel that has a book value 6 times as much as my "hit". Same thing with one of my 2014 Topps Series 1 Jumbo boxes, I got the guaranteed hits, but then a few other parallels that many collectors go nuts for.

[drubacca117]

1. Is the baseball card market “efficient?” What I mean by that, is a price for a given box (jumbo, hobby, or retail) an accurate reflection of the potential value of that box? For example, Blowout cards has Topps Baseball 2011 Series 1 Hobby box for $40 while the Jumbo box is $70. However, a Topps Baseball 2013 Series 2 Hobby box is only $27 while the Jumbo box is only $53. Not knowing any better, I’d get a 2013 Series 2 box over a 2011 Series 1 box. But I’m assuming there’s a reason for the price difference and I’d like to know and understand why.

For example, if I were to open a statistically significant number of boxes of the 2011 Series 1 and 2013 Series 2 boxes, effectively sell each year’s cards (at arm’s length and in a “normal” baseball card market), then I should end up with roughly the same profit/loss margin, whether I open 2011 Series 1 or 2013 Series 2 boxes, correct (assuming the market for unopened boxes of Topps baseball cards is an efficient one). If I’m correct, why are the 2013 Series 2 boxes so much cheaper than 2011? Is it because the 2011 Series 1 boxes have cards that are in high demand, such as a particular rookie card or some highly sought after relics? Or is it simply because there are fewer 2011 Series 1 boxes that are unopened? Any thoughts would be appreciated.

2. All things being equal, selling an SP or parallel card from the current Topps 2014 Series 1 release will go for a higher price than a similar SP or parallel card from a past year, such as 2012, right? Why is that? Is it because with a newer card, collectors have had less time to collect that card and therefore there’s still more demand for it?

As for these questions OP, there are a couple of things that could be at play. 2011 boxes could be in higher demand for a specific insert set or rookie card. There could also have been less 2011 product produced and therefor less available, thus driving up the price.

It could also be that overall, 2013 just wasn't a great year for rookies and such. I am just getting back in to baseball, but a perfect example of this would be 2012 football products compared to 2013 products. Many 2012 products are still commanding MSRP or higher for boxes because of the stellar rookie class. Compare this to 2013, which had no real standout rookies like 2012 had (RGIII, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, etcetera). Many 2013 football products are actually already selling below MSRP... I am seeing boxes of 2013 Chrome Football for $50-$60, but 2012 Chrome Football as high as $150.

For your second question, you are mostly correct. When a new product hits shelves, inserts, SP's, and hits will probably go for their highest prices because the product is so new (not counting if a hot rookie or al star emerges), and because the market hasn't had a chance to kind of self regulate what is deemed an acceptable price.

Hope all this helps, very good questions!

[shandsgator8]

That makes sense, drubacca117, thanks for your insight!